MobiLoud Predicts Record Cyber Week, But Slower Growth for US Online Stores

Ecommerce mobile app builder MobiLoud expects $15 billion in online sales Cyber Monday, and a record week despite slower growth year-on-year for BFCM 2026.

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, October 9, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- MobiLoud, one of the top mobile app development platforms for high-traffic Shopify brands, predicts that US shoppers will spend $47.3 billion online over Cyber Week 2026, the five days from Thanksgiving on November 26 to Cyber Monday on November 30.

The forecast is part of MobiLoud's BFCM Report, an annual analysis of Black Friday and Cyber Monday data. It would mean 7% growth on last year's record $44.2 billion, a slightly slower pace than in each of the past three years.

"BFCM keeps getting bigger for ecommerce," says Andrew Buck, Head of Content at MobiLoud, who oversaw the report. "Our data analysis predicts a new sales record for every day of Cyber Week. Shoppers are feeling the pinch, with gas prices up and paychecks not keeping pace. But it won't be enough to convince people to sit out the biggest shopping event of the year."

MobiLoud has been running analysis of BFCM statistics, as well as data from around the ecommerce and mobile retail sectors for several years, collating research from industry sources together with their own data from working with some of the world's biggest online brands. Their latest research predicts $15.2 billion in sales for Cyber Monday, along with Black Friday to grow 8.5% to a record $12.8 billion.

Thanksgiving, an increasingly significant day in the Cyber Week lineup, is expected to hit a new high of $6.8 billion, as the predominance of online shopping means more buyers can get their BFCM hauls from home.

In addition, MobiLoud expects 57.5% of online holiday sales to happen on smartphones, up from 56.4% last year. On Thanksgiving Day 2025, mobile passed 60% of online sales for the first time, and the share of mobile-first consumers has been rising steadily each year as the standard of mobile storefronts makes it easier and more convenient for people to buy from their phones.

"More than half of all online holiday spending now happens on a phone," said Buck. "We're seeing clear, consistent movement towards mobile as the go-to channel for people to buy from their favorite brands. Why fire up a computer when you can go online and check out just as well from your phone, wherever you are?"

Independent brands are expected to outgrow the market again. MobiLoud predicts that Shopify merchants will sell $18.7 billion over the BFCM weekend, up 28%, after growing sales 32% in the second quarter of 2026.

"Independent brands keep taking a bigger slice of the market," Buck added. "Shoppers want to buy direct from brands they love. Platforms like Shopify make it super easy for a brand to create and manage their own online store, and the introduction of AI shopping is taking away the advantage that big box retailers have when it comes to selection and variety. Target and Amazon don't have the same appeal, when you can discover products from every brand worth knowing about in one search - or prompt."

Worldwide, MobiLoud expects online sales over Cyber Week to reach a record $357 billion, up 6%. In the US, it expects about 205 million people to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, in stores or online.

Shoppers are still spending online. Sales at online and other non-store retailers were up 9.9% in August, about the same pace as a year earlier, according to the US Census Bureau.

That's despite real pressure on household budgets. Gas costs 43% more than a year ago, wages are rising more slowly than prices, consumer sentiment has fallen 13% in a year, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September. With goods prices barely rising, and retailers such as Walmart putting tariff refunds into lower prices, MobiLoud expects tight budgets to push even more spending into the biggest discount days.

MobiLoud's predictions start from each measure's growth over the past three years, then adjust for current conditions. Other sources predict similar growth, including Adobe, who predicts $47.5 billion in US online sales over Cyber Week 2026.

The full report, with charts, 2025 results and sources, is available now from the Reports Hub on their website.

About MobiLoud
MobiLoud is a mobile app development platform, working with brands on Shopify, Shopify Plus, and custom ecommerce platforms. Since 2013, the company has helped consumer businesses build full-featured mobile apps without the traditional overhead of mobile app development.

Andrew Buck
MobiLoud
andrew@mobiloud.com
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